Tuesdays with the Conductor

A very warm welcome to the 5th edition of the newsletter.

It was another successful weekend of rugby betting for the Conductor Bets Patreon Group, with 8 out of 9 bets landing. However, beneath the surface of this winning effort, another battle was being fought - the battle of the bankroll. With the Champions Cup, Challenge Cup, Super Rugby, and Hong Kong Sevens taking place this past weekend, there were 84 rugby games available for betting. This doesn't even include the possibility of placing additional bets on games in other leagues, such as Japanese League One and ProD2. On Saturday, my bankroll started to become stretched as I began placing more and more live in-play bets and bets on unplanned games. At certain points, I was really overexposed, and it could have ended very badly. I would have been extremely frustrated with myself for not maintaining discipline and sticking to the bets where I had put in time and research (the deep regret every bettor feels). Another pitfall that came into play was the temptation of ice-cold Tafels screaming at me from the fridge late on Saturday afternoon. Beers can either greatly increase your betting profits or be disastrous for your betting weekend. #BeBrave (#DontBeStupid)

We ended Sunday with what felt like it should have been a much higher-scoring game between Toulouse and Racing 92, but still easily delivered on the Toulouse -15.5.

I have a feeling things could get trickier in terms of walking away with some healthy profits this weekend. In Super Rugby, the Crusaders are fresh off a bye after their win against the Chiefs and are traveling to Sydney to take on the Waratahs. After the Tahs spanked them 37-24 in Melbourne in Round 2, I think the Crusaders will be at 110% intensity for this one. The Crusaders also welcome back Blackadder, McAlister, and, very importantly, a much more recognized flyhalf in the form of Fergus Burke. Burke has also just signed for Saracens, so I’m sure UK rugby punters will be eyeing him more closely from now on to see if he’s a man they can trust to deliver a Sarries minus or an overs bet. The Crusaders are -11.5 at World Sports Betting, but with conditions looking good in Sydney at the Allianz Stadium, I am leaning towards an over 55.5 total points here. The Waratahs have shown they can score points at home, and I’m backing the Crusaders with Burke back at the helm to contribute consistently to the scoreboard. Click on the image below to open an account and place your bets!

In the Champions Cup, the market I’ll be waiting for is the total points line in Bordeaux. It looks like it’s going to be a glorious spring day in French wine country, and I’ll be hoping the points will be flowing as easily at Stade Chaban Delmas as a bottle of 2016 Château Margaux Pavillon Rouge.

The Bulls' travel to Northampton can best be described as chaotic. Their squad of 40 personnel will be split over 7 different flights in an attempt to get to the UK. If they can shake off their trains, planes and automobiles travel lag, they may be able to cause problems for the Saints with their physicality. However, one stat that cannot be overlooked is that 21 out of 23 knockout games in the Champions Cup have been won by the home team. The Saints are currently -2.5 after opening as underdogs.

Turning to the Challenge Cup, we have a repeat of the United Rugby Championship Round 13 game as Edinburgh travels to Durban to take on the Sharks. Edinburgh will probably want to avoid the extra spicy Bunny Chows if they aim to fare better than the 23-13 defeat from two weeks ago. The handicap is Sharks -7, and Sharks coach John Plumtree has stated that they will put everything into winning the Challenge Cup and salvaging something from a disastrous season. The handicap in the previous game was also -7 at the time of kickoff. Edinburgh had to score late to narrow the losing margin to within 7 points, and the Sharks should have enough to cover the handicap here. The Sharks look to be getting some late season form and cohesiveness.

As the Patreon group has grown in size its been great to see the chat forum becoming more active with more individual bet slips being posted from around the world. Click here to join the action - https://www.patreon.com/user?u=83508629

The conductorbets.com site is live and I will be adding other bets on the site throughout the weekend!

In order to stay a bit more disciplined with your betting I’ve put together a unit betting guide. This guide will help you manage your unit sizes effectively, leading to more consistent betting results. I will definitely be reading this again more than once. https://conductorbets.gumroad.com/l/fvyub

Cheers and have a great punting week!

(Brendon Wessels) The Conductor

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