Tuesdays with the Conductor

A very warm welcome to the 4th edition of the newsletter.

Looking back at the weekend’s action and Friday's betting started off with a bang in the Leinster vs. Bulls game, although that might've just been Luke McGrath's head colliding with Kurt-Lee Arendse. There were definitely some talking points regarding the refereeing interpretations, but in the end, Leinster comfortably covered the handicap spread, and the Leinster Over 28.5 points arrived with a healthy 20 minutes to spare.

Even though I wasn’t financially invested in the game, it was great to witness the Crusaders bagging their first win of the Super Rugby competition after losing their first 5 games. Even though Taranaki's Josh Jacomb had a good game for the Chiefs, it is becoming very clear that Damian McKenzie is vital for the Mooloo Men to win anything. The stats for the Chiefs with DMac and without him are now pretty scary

I wasn’t brave enough to wake up for the 3am SA time kickoff for the Fijian Drua vs. Western Force water polo game, but that looked epic. Rugby in the pouring rain and puddles, with the Fijians still scoring 31 points, will never fail to be a spectacle. As punters, we've become familiar with certain conditions at certain grounds, like high humidity in Durban, nice dry afternoons on the highveld in Pretoria, and the late evening dew in Christchurch, but the Luatoka and Suva weather swings can be absolutely wild. It can be anything on game day—both terrifying and exciting to bet on.

On Saturday, my money was firmly down on Harlequins to beat Bath. With Quins 40-3 points up, I was very smug and waiting for that familiar message notification from Betway to announce my bet had won. With the game ending 40-36, it was sweaty celebrations.

Bets on Edinburgh and Benetton unfortunately wiped out a lot of the profit, so we ended up just slightly ahead for the weekend. All that effort...

Onward to this weekend, and I am absolutely buzzing. Not only are there some cracking Champions Cup and Challenge Cup games to look forward to, but also the Hong Kong Sevens. Still the biggest party in rugby. Where else would you get ex-French international Sebastien Chabal dressed as a caveman, singing 'I’m Gonna Be (500 Miles)' by the Proclaimers?

Looking at some of the games in the Champions Cup, I’m expecting Ronan O'Gara to bring out the heavy cavalry to Cape Town, even if they may be missing Will Skelton and Levani Botia. The Stormers had a less than stellar performance against Ulster, and I’m betting La Rochelle will be too much to handle. Some heavy winds are predicted for Cape Town on Saturday, so it may be worthwhile watching the weather conditions for that game.

Conversely, I’m expecting superb autumn conditions in Pretoria for the Bulls vs. Lyon match. With a 13:30 pm kickoff, the double brandy & cokes would need to start being poured just after 9am to be in fighting fit form for the game. Looking at the squad news reports for Lyon, it seems as if they are coming to South Africa more for a safari than for the 4 points. The current handicap is Bulls -15.5.

Another game I’ll be keeping my focus on is Northampton vs. Munster. I’m expecting the URC Champions to bring heaps of intensity to Franklin's Gardens. Munster are priced at +7.5 on the handicap.

The chat forum in the Patreon Group has been heating up and cannot wait to see what everyone is going to be taking this weekend. For access to all the Patreon bets as well as the Community Chat Forum you can subscribe here: https://www.patreon.com/user/about?u=83508629

It has been incredibly rewarding to grow this service and I’m incredibly proud to announce the conductorbets.com website is now live.

Cheers and have a great punting week!

(Brendon Wessels) The Conductor

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